Current Price: 1.13902
EUR/USD remains under significant short-term pressure on the 4-hour timeframe after a strong decline from the September highs. Price is currently trading below both major exponential moving averages and remains underneath a descending trendline.
At the same time, the pair is approaching an important support zone around 1.1355, which could determine whether the current decline continues or a corrective rebound develops.
🔎 Market Structure – Bearish
After reaching the 1.1650–1.1700 area, EUR/USD entered a clear corrective phase.
The market has since formed a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, with the latest decline bringing price close to the major horizontal support around 1.1355.
Current moving averages:
🔴 50 EMA: 1.14487
🔵 100 EMA: 1.14980
Price at 1.13902 is below both averages, confirming the current short-term bearish structure.
🟥 Key Resistance Levels
1.1400–1.1410
The first short-term resistance area. A sustained move above this zone would indicate that buyers are attempting to stabilize the market.
1.1445–1.1450
Important resistance around the 50 EMA.
1.1490–1.1500
Major resistance around the 100 EMA and previous price structure.
1.1550
Higher resistance from the previous consolidation area.
1.1600–1.1650
Major resistance zone from the September structure.
🟢 Key Support Levels
1.1370–1.1380
Short-term support around the latest price action.
1.1355–1.1360
The most important current support zone. This level has held the recent decline and is clearly marked on the 4H chart.
Below 1.1355
A confirmed breakdown would indicate that sellers have regained control and could lead to another leg lower.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
If EUR/USD manages to hold the 1.1355–1.1360 support zone, a short-term recovery could develop.
The first important target for such a recovery would be 1.1400–1.1410.
A sustained break above 1.1450, together with a move back above the 50 EMA, would provide stronger evidence that the current bearish momentum is weakening.
The next areas to monitor would then be:
1.1450 → 1.1500 → 1.1550
A move above 1.1500 would significantly improve the short-term structure.
🔴 Bearish / Pullback Scenario
If price remains below 1.1400–1.1450 and sellers continue to control the market, EUR/USD could retest the 1.1355–1.1360 support.
A decisive 4H break below this area would strengthen the bearish structure and potentially open the way toward lower levels.
The descending trendline would continue to act as dynamic resistance during any recovery attempt.
👀 What to Watch Next
The key short-term zone is:
1.1355–1.1450
This range contains the current major support and the 50 EMA.
The market is approaching an important technical decision:
🟢 Hold above 1.1355 → possibility of a recovery
🟢 Break above 1.1450 → bearish momentum begins to weaken
🟢 Break above 1.1500 → stronger recovery signal
🔴 Rejection below 1.1450 → bearish structure remains active
🔴 Break below 1.1355 → potential continuation lower
📊 4H Outlook
EUR/USD remains in a bearish corrective structure on the 4-hour timeframe.
Price is below both the 50 EMA (1.14487) and 100 EMA (1.14980), while the descending trendline continues to cap recovery attempts.
The 1.1355–1.1360 region is therefore the key support to monitor. Holding this area could lead to a technical rebound, while a confirmed breakdown would strengthen the current bearish structure.
For the bullish structure to improve significantly, EUR/USD would first need to reclaim 1.1450, followed by the 1.1500 area.
Key levels to monitor:
🟢 Support: 1.1380 / 1.1355
🔴 Resistance: 1.1400 / 1.1450 / 1.1500 / 1.1550
📌 Major resistance: 1.1600–1.1650
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.