Current Price: 1.12504
Timeframe: 4H
Market: EUR/USD
Market Structure
EUR/USD remains in a strong bearish 4H structure. The decline from the September high near 1.1650–1.1700 has produced a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
Price is currently trading well below both moving averages:
- 50 EMA: 1.13475
- 100 EMA: 1.14139
The 50 EMA is below the 100 EMA and both are declining, confirming that the medium-term momentum remains bearish.
The most recent sell-off accelerated after price broke below the 1.1350–1.1360 support area.
Key Resistance Levels
1.1280–1.1300
Immediate resistance following the latest decline.
1.1350–1.1360
Major resistance and previous support. This area also coincides with the declining 50 EMA region.
1.1410–1.1420
100 EMA and important dynamic resistance.
1.1500
Major psychological and structural resistance.
Key Support Levels
1.1220–1.1230
Current major support zone and recent low.
1.1200
Important psychological level.
If 1.1200 fails, the chart opens considerably more downside potential.
Bullish Scenario
The first sign of recovery would be a move back above 1.1280–1.1300.
However, a stronger bullish reversal would require EUR/USD to reclaim the 1.1350–1.1360 zone.
Above this area, the next important target would be around 1.1410–1.1420, where the 100 EMA is currently located.
Until these levels are reclaimed, rallies should be treated as potential corrective moves rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish structure remains dominant while price stays below 1.1350–1.1360.
A break below the current 1.1220–1.1230 support zone would confirm another downside continuation and put 1.1200 in focus.
A sustained break below 1.1200 would strengthen the bearish outlook and could lead to another extension lower.
Technical Outlook
The 4H outlook is bearish.
The combination of:
- lower highs and lower lows,
- price below both EMAs,
- 50 EMA below 100 EMA,
- descending trendline,
- and the recent break below 1.1350
keeps sellers in control.
The most important short-term levels are 1.1230 support and 1.1280–1.1300 resistance.
A break below 1.1230 would favor continuation toward 1.1200.
Conversely, a recovery above 1.1300 would provide the first indication that selling pressure is weakening, while 1.1360 would be the more important bullish confirmation level.
Key levels to watch:
🟢 Bullish confirmation: Above 1.1360
🎯 Upside targets: 1.1410–1.1420 / 1.1500
🟡 Immediate resistance: 1.1280–1.1300
🔴 Bearish confirmation: Below 1.1220–1.1230
🎯 Downside target: 1.1200 and potentially lower
Disclaimer: Our market analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice or a recommendation to trade. The analysis represents a possible market perspective, and markets can move in any direction at any time. Always conduct your own research and consider the risks before making any trading decision.